Voter ID Bill Revisited

by: Clark

Mon Jul 14, 2008 at 06:52:47 AM CDT

We dodged a bullet at the end of the last legislative session when Republicans failed to move a new voter ID bill through the Missouri Legislature before the session came to an end. So why bother with another post on the topic? Because we can't sit on our laurels, especially when the "victory" was just running out the clock. Whether it's voter caging, voter purging, or voter ID laws, Republican voter suppression methods are like zombies - they keep coming back until decapitated. So let's revisit what the voter ID bill means for Missouri, before Republicans resurrect it in the special session, or next regular session, or via ballot initiative.

Secretary of State Robin Carnahan and her office did an excellent job of assembling illustrative anecdotes from real people who would be affected if voters were required to present a government-issued ID (we are already required to present some sort of identification), but as they say, the plural of anecdote is not data. They also released an estimate of how many Missouri voters would be disenfranchised by the government ID requirement, which was about 240,000. But I was curious about where in Missouri these voters might live, so I requested a county-by-county breakdown of how many voters would be disenfranchised.

I was curious to see whether most of those affected lived in the big cities, since the elderly, the poor and minorities would be most affected, and the stereotype is that all poverty and people of color are collected in urban areas. Sure enough, in absolute numbers, Kansas City, St. Louis, and St. Louis County rank at the top of the list.

But added together, the outstate counties actually contain more of the potentially disenfranchised voters.  Out of 241,682 disenfranchised, only 40,900 live in the cities of St. Louis and Kansas City, and 57,200 live in the suburban counties of Saint Louis and Jackson. The rest live around the state. Greene County  alone (where Springfield sits) has 11,787 potentially disenfranchised voters to Jackson County's 10,365 (suburban KC - a population nearly triple that of Springfield.)

It gets a lot worse (illustrated with a map and tables!) below the flip.

St. Louis County has the highest absolute number of potentially disenfranchised voters, but expressed as a percentage of total registered voters, it ranks just above Greene County. St. Louis City has the second highest absolute number, but ranks just above Jasper County (Joplin) if viewed as a percentage of registered voters.

11(!) counties would lose 10% or more of their voters. The hardest hit county is Schuyler, with a whopping 21.39% of its registered voters no longer being able to vote. Other counties  with big chunks of disenfranchised voters include Reynolds (20.64%), Pemiscot (15.81%) and Marion (15.14%)

This is a major concern not only for the presidential and statewide contests, but for races up and down the ticket. The people most likely to be disenfranchised are also most likely to vote Democratic. If we lose 5 to 20 percent of Democratic voters in counties all across Missouri, especially if many of the hardest hit are clustered together in state senate and congressional districts, it gets progressively harder to elect a Democrat in those districts.

Let's look at Wes Shoemyer (D-18), the Democratic senator from NE Missouri. He was elected in 2006 by 1,842 votes. If the voter ID bill were in place at the time, he wouldn't have been elected - 5 of the hardest hit counties are in his district. Knocking out the ability for Democrats to win downticket also hurts the chances of Democrats in later statewide contests, because the Democratic bench will thin out.

Beyond mere partisan concerns, giving the poor even less of a voice in our electoral system is the best way to ensure that those in need are ignored when it comes time to make state policy. And all of it in response to a problem that is completely made up. Not that I expect the Missouri GOP to care about that, since they are the ones concern trolling here, but everyone else ought to be outraged.

The full list of counties, in order of voter disenfranchisement percentage, is below for your perusal.